Library skill · Thinkers' principles
Dalio-style believability-weighted decision
Weighs a team's views on one decision by each person's track record and reasoning on that question, compares it with the majority, and writes the criteria down as a reusable principle. Use it when A team is split on a decision, or a senior voice decides by default.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by Ray Dalio or their companies. About these principles: Ray Dalio's ideas, explained.
AI skill
Have your AI weigh your team's views by track record
14 days free · No card needed
Works in Claude, ChatGPT, and coding agents. On Team and Business, this library skill in your pod updates itself when we improve it.
When to use it
- A team is split on a decision, or a senior voice decides by default
- The same kind of decision keeps being argued from scratch
What you give it
- The decision and who is responsible
- Each person's view, reasoning and confidence
- Track record on this type of decision
- Any existing principle for this type
What you get
A views table with believability on this question, plain and weighted counts, the responsible person's call with reasons, a principle for next time, and a short team note.
How it works
- Name the type (principle 1)
- Collect views with reasons and confidence (principle 4)
- Assess believability on this question (principles 3 and 5)
- Weigh the views (principle 7)
- Stress-test the reasoning, not the rank (principle 4)
- Compare with the responsible person (principle 6)
- Decide and commit (principle 6)
- Write the principle (principle 2)
- Share the reasoning (principle 8)
Example
What you give it
Small online shop, 9 people. Question: should we raise our standard shipping fee from 500 yen to 700 yen? I'm the owner and I lean no. Aiko (ops, has changed shipping rules twice before, both went fine, can show the carrier cost data) says yes. Ken (marketing, joined last month) says no, customers will leave, no data. Mei (customer service, ran the last fee change at her previous job, sales held) says yes but with free shipping above a threshold. Two others say no without reasons.
What you get back (the start of it)
These are principles Ray Dalio has described publicly on principles.com and in his 2017 TED talk. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Ray Dalio or their companies. The weights and this written version are our adaptation.
Type
Another one of those: a price change on a fee customers see. Existing principle: none.
Views
| Person | Option | Reasoning | Confidence | Track record on this type | Explains cause and effect | Believability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiko | Raise to 700 | Carrier costs rose; data shows the loss per order | High | Two fee changes, both held [check: results] | Yes | Somewhat (fewer than three successes) |
| Mei | Raise, free above a threshold | Threshold keeps basket size up | Medium | One, at a previous job | Yes | Somewhat |
| Ken | Keep 500 | Customers will leave | [check] | None | No data yet | Not yet believable on this question; theory worth testing |
| Owner | Keep 500 | [check: reasoning] | [check] | [check] | [check] | [check] |
| Two others | Keep 500 | None given | - | - | No | Not yet |
The rest of this output, the full steps and the checks the AI runs before it answers are in your pod once you add the skill.
Use this skill in your AIShare it with your team
Add it to an AI Skill Pod and everyone on the team, contractors included, uses the same version from their own AI. Read the best ways to share AI skills with a team
Changelog
- v1.0.1 · · Example output now opens with the attribution and not-affiliated lines, as the skill's own checks require.
- v1.0.0 · · First release.
Sources
- Use principles. - principles.com (read 2026-11-04)
- Be clear on whether you are arguing or seeking to understand (believability defined) - principles.com (read 2026-11-04)
- Remember that believable opinions are most likely to come from people who... - principles.com (read 2026-11-04)
- Use believability weighting as a tool rather than a substitute for decision making by Responsible Parties - principles.com (read 2026-11-04)
- Be radically transparent. - principles.com (read 2026-11-04)
- How to build a company where the best ideas win, TED2017 transcript (read 2026-11-04)