Official skill · Management
Decision bias review
Reviews a pending decision for the errors in Thinking, Fast and Slow (anchoring, planning fallacy, framing), adds an outside view and a pre-mortem, and says what would change the call. Use it when before a hard-to-reverse hire, price, investment or launch.
AI skill
Have your AI catch the biases in a decision before you commit
14 days free · No card needed
Works in Claude, ChatGPT, and coding agents. On Team and Business, the official skill in your pod updates itself when we improve it.
When to use it
- Before a hard-to-reverse hire, price, investment or launch
- A confident forecast rests on one story
- The team agreed quickly
What you give it
- The decision and options
- Key estimates and their sources
- Records of similar past cases
What you get
Number sources and risks, what isn't in view, a framing check, an outside view with a reference class, a pre-mortem, and a recommendation.
How it works
- State the decision and the intuitive answer
- Trace each key number
- Check what you see is all there is
- Check the framing
- Take the outside view
- Run a pre-mortem
- Recommend
Example
What you give it
We plan to open a second café in March. Our manager says fit-out will take 6 weeks and cost 60,000 euros, because the first one took 6 weeks. Daily sales should hit 900 euros by month two; our first café does 1,100 now, after three years. The landlord offered a 10-year lease and said the rent is 20% below market. Everyone in the meeting agreed. Our contractor's last two jobs for other clients both ran about 4 weeks late.
What you get back (the start of it)
Decision bias review: opening a second café in March
Date: [date] · Decider: [check: owner]
Decision and intuitive answer
Question: sign the 10-year lease and open in March? · Leaning toward: yes · Reason given: the first café works, so a second will too.
Where the numbers come from
| Estimate | Value | Source | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fit-out time | 6 weeks | the first café | Planning fallacy: one case, and the contractor's last two jobs ran about 4 weeks late |
| Fit-out cost | 60,000 euros | the manager [check: quote] | No written quote in the input |
| Sales by month two | 900 euros a day | anchored on today's 1,100 | The first café reached 1,100 after three years [check: its month-two sales] |
| Rent | 20% below market | the landlord | The other side of the deal set the anchor [check: comparable rents] |
The rest of this output, the full steps and the checks the AI runs before it answers are in your pod once you add the skill.
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Changelog
- v1.0.0 · · First release.
Sources
- Wikipedia: Thinking, Fast and Slow (read 2026-11-04)
- Gary Klein: Performing a Project Premortem (Harvard Business Review, 2007) (read 2026-11-04)